Slight dip in April Indicator, as Omicron wave is stabilizing; geographical variability persists

The latest Indicator shows that the number of seafarers onboard vessels beyond the expiry of their contract has decreased slightly from 5% from 4.2% in the last month, while the number of seafarers onboard vessels for over 11 months has remained stable at 0.4%. This is the first decrease in numbers, albeit slight, since December 2021. The Neptune Indicator also reports a 4.4 percentage point increase in seafarer vaccines, from 72.8% in March to 77.2% in April, as seafarer vaccinations have stayed at a good pace.

The crew change situation in Asia is very mixed. There are positive news from the Philippines, where Covid-19 cases are going down and the government has moved to ease restrictions and seafarer quarantines, alleviating crew-changes in the region. Meanwhile, China is seeing a spike in infections. This has led to even more stringent restrictions and port closures as owners continue to face operational challenges and costs in repatriating seafarers. The situation in Ukraine is also impacting crew changes, through sanctions and port restrictions, which is shifting crew demand to Asia.

The seafarer vaccination trend continues to be stable and positive. This month, the percentage surpassed numbers in some leading European shipping nations and the rate is catching up with nations with the highest vaccination rates. Managers reported the same challenges around vaccine hesitancy as in previous months, but noted some increase in vaccine uptake among Ukrainian and Russian seafarers. Nonetheless, there remains a need for more booster shots for seafarers.

“The April Indicator shows some positive news with a slight decrease, after several months of increasing numbers and fears of a reescalation of the crew change crisis. Nonetheless, the conflict in Ukraine and the recent Chinese infection spike are having impacts on crew changes,” says Kasper Søgaard, Managing Director, Head of Institutional Strategy and Development, Global Maritime Forum.

The Neptune Declaration Crew Change Indicator builds on aggregated data from leading ship managers: Anglo- Eastern, Bernhard Schulte, Columbia Shipmanagement, Fleet Management (FLEET), OSM, Synergy Marine, Thome, V.Group and Wallem Ship Management, which collectively have about 90,000 seafarers currently onboard.

The Neptune Declaration Crew Change Indicator is published once a month and builds on aggregated data provided by the ship managers to the Global Maritime Forum. The data is used to calculate a weighted average of the percentage of seafarers who have been onboard vessels beyond the expiry of their contract of employment, a weighted average of the percentage of seafarers who have been onboard vessels for over 11 months, and a weighted average of the percentage of seafarers who have been vaccinated. As top ship managers are making significant efforts – and are often better placed – in facilitating crew changes, the Neptune Declaration Crew Change Indicator cannot be used directly to calculate the full numbers of seafarers impacted by the crew change crisis. Likewise, the calculated percentage of seafarers who have been vaccinated is likely to overestimate the actual proportion of vaccinated seafarers.

The April Neptune Declaration Crew Change Indicator can be found here.

For further information: Interim Head of Communications, Sofie Rud at rud@globalmaritimeforum.org or +45 2810 2332.